Cash flow analyses

Cash flow analyses

Using the models Balmorel, Energy Plan etc. you can calculate the most optimal extensions of the energy system seen from a socio-economical point of view and considering the overall framework conditions.

But if the operators investing in the optimal extension is not seeing the incentives to carry out the investments, the plan will not be realised. Therefore, it is important to supplement the socio-economical calculation with a cash flow analysis showing what the most important operators earn or loose by contributing to realising the plan. This type of calculations can quickly become very complex, as many stakeholders are involved with many different interests and preferences. The E2G maps can be used to achieve an overview of the operators and their interests. By using the E2G coordinates you can in a unique way identify the operators in time and space.

The goal is to carry out projects where socio-economical strategy plans are extended with cash flow analyses and where the E2G maps are used. The result of these analyses will be made available at the E2G platform. The cash flow analyses have earlier been used in the project: ”Integrated resource planning” (1992-94) and in Elsam's preliminary analyses of decentral power plants on market conditions in 2001–2003.

The following slides will illustrate the procedure of the cash flow analyses

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Strategy plan

The socio-economical strategy plan can be the starting point for the cash flow analysis

  1. Based on the socio-economical model calculation, possible changes in the market prices, subsidies and trade and production volumes are quantified

  2. Using the  E2G map of the changed energy flows the operators which are influenced by the strategy are identified

  3. If the decision chains of the operators in question already have been mapped by the E2G platform, this mapping is used or else the operators will be mapped and the result made available at the E2G platform

  4. A qualitative overview is made of which operators who loose and win by the actual changes

  5. Based on this overview a model is developed which can calculate the actual cash flows in a business-as-usual course where the legislation or the organisation are being chaged

  6. If the cash flow analysis shows that there are operators which are important for the carrying through of the plans and who looses on participating in the realisation of the plan, it should be analysed which different possible changes in the framework conditions and the organisation may leed to the most important operators have an incentive to participate in realising the plan

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